The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) both said on 8 October 2026 that El Niño is strengthening, with sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific forecast to reach record levels before the end of the year.

In its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, WMO said the seasonal average Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly for October to December is forecast to reach about +3.7°C, peaking around December. WMO said this would be the highest since observations began, above the previous record of +2.6°C in November 2015 to January 2016. The anomaly rose from an average +1.6°C in June 2026 to +2.5°C in August, according to WMO, which says its outlook reflects a consensus across 13 national and international centres.

El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly.

Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization, 8 October 2026

Saulo said WMO forecasts indicate a likelihood close to 100% that El Niño will persist through February 2027, potentially as one of the strongest events since at least 1950.

NOAA puts odds on a historic event

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in place and said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with a chance of more than 83%. In the past month the Niño-3.4 index reached +2.1°C, Niño-3 +3.0°C and Niño-1+2 +3.9°C, and anomalies exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, it said. NOAA put the chance of a historic event, defined as a three-month RONI value of +2.5°C or more, at 54% for September to November, 83% for October to December and 70% for November to January. WMO states its anomalies against a 1993 to 2009 baseline and NOAA uses its RONI measure, so the two sets of numbers are not directly comparable. NOAA’s next ENSO discussion is due on 12 November 2026.

What it means for India and the UK

WMO’s update forecasts drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent for October to December, and an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across large areas. It expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to peak in October and then decline, with an October to December anomaly of about +0.5°C. The India Meteorological Department’s 30 September outlook, by contrast, said neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions were likely to persist through the northeast monsoon season. IMD also said El Niño would strengthen through the end of the year, forecast below-normal October rain for India and said it would issue its November outlook towards the end of October.

For Britain, the government said on 2 October that El Niño is set to put the UK at a slightly greater risk of a wet, stormy autumn, while drought pressures persist in some areas.

TAD’s reading

  • Rabi planners: WMO’s dry signal for the subcontinent and IMD’s October forecast point the same way, which strengthens the case for water-led crop and input planning this winter.
  • Commodity buyers: A record-strength event peaking around December widens the range of outcomes for South Asian winter crops; supply contracts priced on normal-season assumptions carry more risk.
  • A divergence to watch: WMO and IMD differ on the Indian Ocean Dipole, which bears on the south peninsula’s northeast monsoon. IMD’s November outlook is the next check.
  • UK farm businesses: A wetter, stormier autumn could help refill water stores but brings field access and flood risk, so drought and flood planning now run side by side.