India’s 2026 southwest monsoon delivered 87% of its long period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its end-of-season statement on 30 September 2026. All-India rainfall from June to September was 759.4 mm against an LPA of 868.6 mm, which IMD said was the fourth lowest since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901.

The shortfall was uneven. Northwest India received 94% of its LPA and Central India 97%, both within IMD’s normal range for those regions. East and Northeast India received 74% (1,016.3 mm), which IMD said was the lowest since 1901, and the South Peninsula received 76% (542.0 mm), the fourth lowest since 1901. The monsoon core zone, which IMD says covers most of the country’s rain-fed farming, received 779.9 mm, just below the lower limit of its normal band of 782.8 mm to 881.2 mm.

A season of dry spells

Rainfall over the country was 65% of LPA in June, 101% in July, 84% in August and 92% in September. IMD said no low-pressure area formed in June, which contributed to the large deficit that month. Of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 18 covering 53% of the country’s area had normal rain, 17 covering 42% were deficient and one, Odisha, had excess rain. At district level, 282 of 741 districts, covering 38% of the area, fell in the deficient category.

The monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, three days after the normal date, and covered the whole country by 9 July. IMD’s onset forecast of 26 May missed its window, which IMD said was only the second such miss since operational onset forecasts began in 2005. Its seasonal forecasts, 92% of LPA in April and 90% in the May update, both pointed to a below-normal season.

Outlook for the rabi months

In a separate outlook issued the same day, IMD said October rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be below normal, at less than 85% of the October LPA of about 75.4 mm, and that above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the country. For October to December, rainfall over the five south peninsula subdivisions that depend on the northeast monsoon, including Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, is most likely to be normal at 88% to 112% of the LPA. Most other parts of the country are expected to see below-normal rain.

IMD said strong El Niño conditions prevail in the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen through the end of the year, while the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to stay neutral. It said below-normal rain in the rabi season could affect soil moisture, irrigation requirements and the recharge of reservoirs and groundwater, and advised authorities to assess water availability and prepare agricultural contingency measures. IMD will issue its November outlook towards the end of October.

According to Business Standard, reservoirs in southern India held 50% of live storage on 24 September against 79% nationally, and kharif sowing stood at about 110.7 million hectares on 25 September, 1.2% below a year earlier. IMD’s statements did not include crop or reservoir figures.

TAD’s reading

  • Input makers: A dry October across most regions points to a slower and more uneven start to rabi sowing outside irrigated areas, which may shift the timing of seed and fertiliser demand.
  • Southern agribusiness: The normal northeast monsoon forecast for the south peninsula is the main offset to a weak southern season, and it is the forecast to track through December.
  • Lenders and insurers: Deficits across 282 districts are the starting data for crop insurance assessments and state drought decisions in the weeks ahead.