First registrations of agricultural tractors in the UK returned to year-on-year growth in September 2026, according to figures published on 2 October by the Agricultural Engineers Association (AEA). The trade body’s data, compiled by its economics department from Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) records, show 1,033 tractors over 50hp were registered in the month, up 10.8% from 932 in September 2025. The AEA said September was still a little below the five-year average for the time of year.

Growth slowing through the year

Registrations for January to September 2026 reached 8,317, up 17.4% on the same period of 2025. The AEA said the total had already reached 95% of last year’s full-year figure with three months still to run. It also said growth has slowed as the year has gone on: registrations in the third quarter were about 7% higher than a year earlier, compared with growth of 22% in the first half.

The AEA’s monthly table shows the pattern. March registrations were 2,134, up 45.6% on March 2025. July registrations rose 6.1% to 934 and August registrations fell 1.7% to 395 before the September increase.

The rolling 12-month total to September 2026 was 10,025 machines, up 10.2%. The AEA said this was the first time the 12-month figure had topped 10,000 since the year ending February 2025, but that it remains near the bottom of the historical range, indicating that the recovery is slow and partial and that confidence remains low across UK farming.

A record low in 2025

In its annual market summary, the AEA said 8,791 tractors were registered in 2025, down 14.2% and the lowest annual total since it began tracking registrations in the 1960s. It attributed the weakness to a lack of confidence in farming, citing uncertainty about future agricultural and tax policy, challenging weather, increased costs and weak prices for some commodities, notably arable crops. Registrations of tractors over 240hp fell by nearly a third in 2025, and average power fell to 172.9hp from 179.7hp in 2024.

The September release did not include a breakdown by region, power band or manufacturer. The AEA publishes brand market shares only after a one-year delay because of competition law requirements, so the latest shares it has released are for 2024.

TAD’s reading

  • For dealers: A 10.8% rise on a weak September 2025 still left the month below the AEA’s five-year average, which argues for caution on winter stock orders rather than a return to pre-2024 volumes.
  • For manufacturers: With 2026 already at 95% of the 2025 total, the year is very likely to finish above last year’s record low, but third-quarter growth of about 7% suggests the early-year rebound is fading rather than building.
  • For the high-horsepower segment: The AEA linked the sharpest 2025 falls to arable farmers’ finances. Without a power-band split for September, it is not yet possible to say whether large-tractor demand is sharing in the recovery.
  • For policy watchers: The AEA tied 2025’s weakness partly to agricultural and tax policy uncertainty, so registrations remain a practical monthly gauge of farmer confidence as that policy settles.